Serbia's New Leaders Prioritize Domestic Fixes

Fourteen years of authoritarian rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party ended on Sunday, when the opposition Student List secured a historic victory. This election result marks a decisive break from the political dominance that defined the region for over a decade.

As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and upcoming presidential elections in December, international observers are assessing how the change in power will affect Serbia's external standing. While many analysts initially predicted a rapid pivot toward the West, experts warn that internal consolidation will take immediate priority. Any transformation in foreign policy is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that a rapid reset in regional relations is unlikely. He noted that the new authorities must first address a system that has captured all democratic institutions, including the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media. Popov described the process as tidying up at home before solving problems with neighbors, a task that will take precedence despite the outgoing regime's efforts to undermine regional ties.

Relations with Croatia remain the most complex issue, marked by frequent sharp words and a history of clashes between the SNS and the ruling Croatian Democratic Union. Popov noted that while relations are not frozen, they are not as they should be between neighbors. He observed that both Belgrade and Zagreb often used external enemies to justify domestic policies, though a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina existed behind the public hostility.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new government. He explained that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. While Russian influence will face a blow with the end of uncritical glorification in state media, Vuksanovic asserted that Serbia will not adopt a hawkish stance overnight. The country still needs preferential gas prices and an unresolved Kosovo dispute, factors that keep ties with Moscow relevant.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said that ties with Israel will not be severed, but recently concluded contracts will face scrutiny. Specifically, agreements concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia are expected to be re-examined. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another nationalist ally in Europe, following the removal of Viktor Orban in Hungary earlier this year.

The new government is scheduled to hold presidential elections in December. Analysts agree that the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments. The policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which brought Serbia more harm than good, will be re-evaluated as the new leadership works to strengthen ties with the European Union.